2019-07-04T11:49:32 n3619

Forecast of Barmah Forest Virus disease in relation to variations of temperature and rainfall

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Data was obtained on notified Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the potential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The figure shows: (a) Geographical distribution of BFV disease under current climatic conditions for Queensland's entire coastal regions, (b) forecast of potential probabilities of risk of BFV disease under climate change scenarios for 2025, (c) 2050 and (d) 2100.

Location of data collection

153.552920,-9.929730 137.994575,-9.929730 137.994575,-29.178588 153.552920,-29.178588 153.552920,-9.929730


Naish, Suchithra, Mengersen, Kerrie, Hu, Wenbiao, & Tong, Shilu (2013) Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. PLoS ONE, 8(5), e62843. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/67158/

Research areas

Population biology
Population modeling
Barmah Forest Virus
Infectious disease epidemiology
Infectious disease modeling
Public health
Infectious diseases
Computational biology

Cite this collection

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu (2013): Forecast of BFV disease setting minimum temperature and rainfall varies. Figure_3.tif. PLOS ONE.

Related information

Tidal data provided by Department of Transport and Main Roads http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/
Data on notified BFV cases obtained from Queensland Health http://www.health.qld.gov.au/
Socio-economic indicator data obtained from Australian Bureau of Statistics http://www.abs.gov.au/
Rainfall and temperature data provided by Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/

Access the data


Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY)


© 2013 Naish et al.

Dates of data collection

From 2000 to 2008


Name: Distinguished Professor Kerrie Mengersen
Phone: +61 7 3138 2063
Fax: +61 7 3138 2310


Date record created:
Date record modified:
Record status:
Published - Open Access