Forecast of Barmah Forest Virus disease in relation to variations of temperature and rainfall
Data was obtained on notified Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the potential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The figure shows: (a) Geographical distribution of BFV disease under current climatic conditions for Queensland's entire coastal regions, (b) forecast of potential probabilities of risk of BFV disease under climate change scenarios for 2025, (c) 2050 and (d) 2100.
Location of data collection
153.552920,-9.929730 137.994575,-9.929730 137.994575,-29.178588 153.552920,-29.178588 153.552920,-9.929730
Naish, Suchithra, Mengersen, Kerrie, Hu, Wenbiao, & Tong, Shilu (2013) Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. PLoS ONE, 8(5), e62843. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/67158/
Barmah Forest Virus
Infectious disease epidemiology
Infectious disease modeling
Cite this collection
Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu (2013): Forecast of BFV disease setting minimum temperature and rainfall varies. Figure_3.tif. PLOS ONE.
Tidal data provided by Department of Transport and Main Roads http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/
Data on notified BFV cases obtained from Queensland Health http://www.health.qld.gov.au/
Socio-economic indicator data obtained from Australian Bureau of Statistics http://www.abs.gov.au/
Rainfall and temperature data provided by Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/
Access the data
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY)
© 2013 Naish et al.
Dates of data collection
From 2000 to 2008
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Published - Open Access