2016-12-23T11:36:41 n5477

Forecast of Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) disease setting minimum temperature constant

Viewed: 158

We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios.

The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections.

The figures show (a) Geographical distribution of BFV disease under current climatic conditions for Queensland entire coastal regions, (b) forecast of potential probabilities of risk of BFV disease under climate change scenarios setting minimum temperature constant for 2025, (c) 2050 and (d) 2100.

Geographical area of data collection

kmlPolyCoords
153.552920,-9.929730 137.994575,-9.929730 137.994575,-29.178588 153.552920,-29.178588 153.552920,-9.929730

Publications

Naish S, Mengersen K, Hu W, Tong S (2013) Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia. PLoS ONE 8(5): e62843. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0062843

Research areas

Zoonoses
Computational biology
Public health
Infectious diseases
Population modelling
epidemiology
Infectious disease epidemiology
Population biology
bfv
Infectious disease modelling
Barmah Forest virus
ecology

Cite this collection

Naish,Sue; Mengersen,Kerrie; Tong,Shilu; Hu,Wenbiao. (2015): Forecast of Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) disease setting minimum temperature constant. [Queensland University of Technology]. http://dx.doi.org/10.4225/09/585c7f5a3a927

Licence


Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Copyright

© 2013, Naish et al.

Dates of data collection

From 2000 to 2008

Connections

Has association with
Kerrie Mengersen  (Researcher)
Shilu Tong  (Researcher)
Sue Naish  (Researcher)
Wenbiao Hu  (Researcher)

Contacts

Name: Dr Sue Naish

Other

Date record created:
2015-06-29T11:42:09
Date record modified:
2016-12-23T11:36:41
Record status:
Published - Open Access